Dashboard Scenarios and Interpretation

This page explains common and edge-case dashboard outcomes with concrete examples. Use this as an interpretation guide, not trading advice.

Core Terms

• Base Price: the `from ...` value shown in Signal Board; this anchors direction and error context.
• Predicted Close: model-estimated target close at the forward horizon.
• Actual Close: observed market value once target time is reached.
• Resolved: target time has passed and row has been reconciled.
• Upcoming: target time has not passed yet.

Signal Lifecycle

• Step 1: a signal is generated at source time with base and target values.
• Step 2: status remains upcoming/live until target time arrives.
• Step 3: status becomes resolved and tracker labels are assigned.

Scenario 1 - BUY with Correct Direction

• Base: `100.00`, Predicted: `100.30`, Actual: `100.18`.
• Both predicted and actual moved upward from base.
• Expected interpretation: directional alignment is positive, even with some distance from exact target.

Scenario 2 - SELL with Correct Direction

• Base: `100.00`, Predicted: `99.70`, Actual: `99.82`.
• Both predicted and actual moved downward from base.
• Expected interpretation: directional call aligned; point error still exists.

Scenario 3 - HOLD in Range-Bound Conditions

• Base: `100.00`, Predicted: `100.01`, Actual: `99.99`.
• Move magnitude is small around base.
• Expected interpretation: HOLD can be the appropriate output in low-move environments.

Scenario 4 - Correct but Non-Zero Error

• Base: `67920.00`, Predicted: `67870.65`, Actual: `67956.00`, Error `0.126%`.
• A row can still be marked directionally acceptable while error is non-zero.
• Expected interpretation: direction and price distance are different quality dimensions.

Scenario 5 - Within Band

• Predicted and actual are close enough under tolerance, though not identical.
• Expected interpretation: acceptable proximity outcome; not exact-match outcome.

Scenario 6 - Outside Band

• Predicted and actual diverge more than tolerance.
• Expected interpretation: target miss beyond accepted proximity.

Scenario 7 - Upcoming vs Resolved

• Upcoming: no final quality label yet.
• Resolved: final tracker labels and error metrics become available.

Scenario 8 - High Confidence but Many HOLD Signals

• Can occur when market is choppy/range-bound and model frequently detects low actionable move.
• Expected interpretation: confidence score and action mix describe different things.

Scenario 9 - Low Hit-Rate but Low Avg Error

• Possible when many direction calls are narrowly wrong but predicted price remains close to realized price.
• Expected interpretation: directional quality and proximity quality must be read together.

Scenario 10 - Session Signal Mix Looks One-Sided

• Example: repeated SELL outputs in one session for one symbol.
• Expected interpretation: reflects current model bias under live conditions; review with historical tracker and not a single row.

Scenario 11 - Why Symbol Filter Matters

• All-symbol view mixes behaviors and can hide symbol-specific dynamics.
• Expected interpretation: evaluate both all-symbol portfolio view and single-symbol view.

Scenario 12 - Why Family Filter Matters

• Different model families can behave differently for the same symbol and session.
• Expected interpretation: compare family-specific tracker behavior before drawing conclusions.

Scenario 13 - Market Closed

• No new actionable updates are expected for closed instruments.
• Expected interpretation: closed status is operational state, not a model error.

Scenario 14 - What to Check Before Trusting a Current Signal

• Check recent resolved history for same symbol + family.
• Check error trend, not only one latest row.
• Check session mix context and market state.

Scenario 15 - Practical Reading Sequence

• Start with Signal Board (current action and expected move).
• Then open Real vs Predicted (short-term behavior).
• Then open Historical Tracker (resolved evidence).
• Finally read Session Signal Mix (context over recent period).

Risk Reminder

• All outputs are guidance signals and probabilistic, not guaranteed outcomes.
• Always use your own risk controls and independent confirmation.